Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 20.614406 24.782461 29.364234 34.746637 40.867490 47.582754 55.477487
2025-09-14 14.048386 19.371215 25.829496 34.119082 44.345817 56.416154 71.596120
2025-09-21 10.904802 16.764447 24.436315 34.947479 48.682704 65.720338 88.119876
2025-09-28 7.981315 13.656324 21.649368 33.280736 49.281133 70.003814 98.292113
2025-10-05 6.696143 12.519932 21.222080 34.497254 53.487593 78.884923 114.518647
2025-10-12 5.618366 11.445275 20.653336 35.323869 57.061772 86.968656 129.941262
2025-10-19 4.728904 10.476095 20.058614 35.957303 60.284423 94.615581 144.997540
2025-10-26 4.062699 9.747345 19.711484 36.864117 63.873159 102.850142 161.107351
2025-11-02 3.304236 8.672378 18.615074 36.423350 65.326400 108.017378 173.039309
2025-11-09 2.774758 7.927259 17.969487 36.611246 67.688822 114.532632 187.050151
2025-11-16 2.276586 7.123556 17.089369 36.280454 69.149189 119.702415 199.225816
2025-11-23 1.794122 6.220735 15.874389 35.211240 69.285871 122.805336 208.394976
2025-11-30 1.526075 5.803620 15.627491 35.981276 72.718635 131.436880 226.626035
2025-12-07 1.187567 5.089081 14.651811 35.302736 73.669811 136.280885 239.421266
2025-12-14 1.010700 4.774497 14.488733 36.151042 77.293036 145.490692 259.185269
2025-12-21 0.729232 4.002094 13.125191 34.439396 76.210864 146.993204 266.981676
2025-12-28 0.637867 3.843890 13.206298 35.688611 80.558317 157.555964 289.323734
2026-01-04 0.543328 3.630373 13.108210 36.537303 84.192017 167.042220 310.213245
2026-01-11 0.456393 3.403299 12.931506 37.187577 87.469611 176.025498 330.532526
2026-01-18 0.390948 3.236176 12.886746 38.118383 91.320171 186.101915 352.880764
2026-01-25 0.301592 2.891436 12.266938 37.665970 92.431562 191.471581 367.668160
2026-02-01 0.242921 2.663246 11.941874 37.858835 94.811194 199.110451 386.373220
2026-02-08 0.186106 2.392369 11.422002 37.519293 96.078331 204.803422 401.964434